❓Complexity Hides Bad Assumptions. Simplicity Exposes Them.
By the end of this email, you’ll have one AI prompt you can run on any big decision to surface the obvious questions before you commit.
1️⃣ Real-World Use Case
Quaker Oats in 1994 wanted to dominate beverages.
They’d already turned Gatorade into a $1B brand. Snapple looked like the next win.
They paid $1.7B for Snapple.
Wall Street said they overpaid by $1B.
Quaker pushed forward anyway.
27 months later, they sold Snapple for $300M.
Loss: $1.4B. About $1.6M lost per day they owned it.
The CEO was fired. Quaker was eventually acquired.
What went wrong? They skipped no-brainer questions:
Does Snapple’s distribution match ours?
No. Snapple used 300+ independent distributors and convenience stores.
Quaker was built on grocery channels. Completely different system.Is the brand culture compatible?
No. Snapple was quirky and irreverent.
Quaker was corporate and methodical. Oil and water.Is $1.7B a reasonable price?
Wall Street publicly said no. Quaker ignored them.Is Snapple still growing?
No. Sales were already declining before the acquisition.
Four obvious questions. All skipped.
Quaker built complex integration plans on a foundation of unasked basics.
Meanwhile, Charlie Munger showed the opposite.
In his 1996 talk, he explained how you build a giant like Coca-Cola by answering no-brainer questions first:
Can we build this with a generic product? No, we need a protected trademark.
Can we succeed staying regional? No, we need global scale.
Only after settling the obvious did he move to strategy.
The difference:
Munger killed bad paths early.
Quaker spent $1.7B before checking if the path was walkable.
Your job: Don’t let your team build beautiful plans on top of unanswered obvious questions.
📚 Framework in Focus: No-Brainer Questions First
From Charlie Munger’s “Practical Thought About Practical Thought” (1996) to Berkshire’s decision culture, boiled down into one rule:
Decide the obvious first.
What this helps you do in your week:
Stop avoidable mistakes early
You catch “Snapple moments” before they lock in.Cut wasted analysis
You don’t greenlight months of work until the basics check out.Normalize “embarrassing” questions
You give your team permission to ask the simple things out loud.Make complexity earn its keep
Models and decks come after the foundation is solid.
One obvious question asked early is worth more than a thousand hours of analysis after commitment.
2️⃣ Powerful Prompt
Use this on one real decision you’re considering right now: a vendor, initiative, hire, platform, or partnership.
Role
You are a strategic clarity advisor who applies Charlie Munger's principle of deciding big no-brainer questions first.
Context
Use the No-Brainer Questions framework to pressure-test a decision before detailed planning begins.
Inputs
Challenge: [INPUT: The initiative, acquisition, hire, or major commitment you're considering]
Investment at stake: [INPUT: Money, time, resources, or reputation on the line]
Why you're excited: [INPUT: The upside case driving enthusiasm]
Task
Generate 5-7 no-brainer questions this decision must pass. These should be embarrassingly basic—the kind a smart outsider or child would ask.
For each question, provide an honest assessment: Clear Yes, Clear No, or Don't Know.
Deliver a verdict: If any answer is "Clear No" or "Don't Know" on a fundamental question, recommend stopping until resolved.
Instructions
Questions should be simple enough to answer without consultants or complex models.
A single "Clear No" to a fundamental question should halt everything.
Do not let enthusiasm for the opportunity bypass basic validation.
Surface the questions that feel too embarrassing to ask—those matter most.
Keep output concise and scannable for an executive.
Output Format
1. No-Brainer Questions Table
Question | Answer | Implication |
|---|---|---|
[Question 1] | Clear Yes / Clear No / Don't Know | [What this means for the decision] |
... | ... | ... |
2. Verdict
Recommend: Proceed / Pause / Kill
Reasoning (2-3 sentences): Why this recommendation based on the answers above.
(Copy-paste into ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini.)
What did you think?
🧭 Try This Week
1️⃣ Pick one live decision.
Something your team is already excited about: a vendor, initiative, platform, hire, or partnership.
2️⃣ Run the prompt on it.
Paste the prompt, fill in the inputs, and let the model surface your no-brainer questions.
3️⃣ Answer honestly.
Mark each as Clear Yes, Clear No, or Don’t Know. No partial credit.
4️⃣ Spot the uncomfortable question.
There’s usually one obvious question nobody has asked out loud. Name it.
5️⃣ Ask it in the next meeting.
Put the no-brainer question on the table and watch how it changes the conversation.
If your verdict is Pause or Kill, you’ve just prevented months of misallocated effort—even avoiding one bad six-figure decision this year pays for this practice thousands of times over.
✨ The goal isn’t more analysis. It’s better questions, asked earlier.
↗︎ Think Better. – Clarity Prompts team
